Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Jinling Hotel Corporation, Ltd. (601007.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.54 - $0.77$0.66
Multi-Stage$0.85 - $0.93$0.89
Blended Fair Value$0.77
Current Price$7.34
Upside-89.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.79%-0.26%0.150.130.100.060.030.190.250.150.120.14
YoY Growth--10.43%26.87%69.85%99.56%-83.53%-26.15%70.99%18.10%-9.67%-7.55%
Dividend Yield--2.17%1.85%1.04%0.88%0.51%3.01%3.12%1.81%1.12%1.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)31.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.303.942.36
Cash Retained (M)25.7325.7325.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.30-3.94-2.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.4221.7923.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)384.59384.59384.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.070.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.53%9.53%9.53%
Growth Rate-2.26%-1.26%-0.26%
Fair Value$0.54$0.66$0.77
Upside / Downside-92.60%-91.06%-89.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)31.5131.1230.7230.3429.9529.5830.46
Payout Ratio18.36%32.69%47.01%61.34%75.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.7810.1714.4418.6122.6726.6228.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.53%9.53%9.53%
Growth Rate-2.26%-1.26%-0.26%
Year 1 PV (M)9.199.299.38
Year 2 PV (M)11.8012.0412.28
Year 3 PV (M)13.7314.1614.60
Year 4 PV (M)15.1215.7516.39
Year 5 PV (M)16.0516.8817.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)259.95273.52287.66
Equity Value (M)325.84341.64358.07
Shares Outstanding (M)384.59384.59384.59
Fair Value$0.85$0.89$0.93
Upside / Downside-88.46%-87.90%-87.32%

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