Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

China Southern Power Grid Energy Storage Co., Ltd. (600995.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$51.68 - $95.43$89.43
Multi-Stage$15.16 - $16.59$15.86
Blended Fair Value$52.65
Current Price$12.37
Upside325.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS60.28%26.07%0.320.200.650.270.040.030.020.020.020.01
YoY Growth--58.25%-68.94%139.54%669.54%16.75%42.77%-8.65%6.62%117.93%-68.36%
Dividend Yield--3.36%2.09%4.66%1.97%0.48%0.41%0.25%0.26%0.17%0.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,514.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)772.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)742.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)302.92189.32113.59
Cash Retained (M)742.51742.51742.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-302.92-189.32-113.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)439.59553.19628.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,156.303,156.303,156.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.180.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.180.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.420.44
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$51.68$89.43$95.43
Upside / Downside317.78%622.99%671.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,514.581,613.031,717.881,829.541,948.462,075.112,137.36
Payout Ratio50.98%58.78%66.59%74.39%82.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)772.07948.151,143.861,361.001,601.541,867.601,977.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)883.72892.10900.47
Year 2 PV (M)993.681,012.601,031.71
Year 3 PV (M)1,101.961,133.601,165.83
Year 4 PV (M)1,208.601,255.081,302.89
Year 5 PV (M)1,313.601,377.051,442.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)42,348.7844,394.2446,517.99
Equity Value (M)47,850.3450,064.6752,361.81
Shares Outstanding (M)3,156.303,156.303,156.30
Fair Value$15.16$15.86$16.59
Upside / Downside22.56%28.23%34.11%

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