Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group Co.,Ltd. (600967.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.93 - $12.88$8.49
Multi-Stage$4.33 - $4.73$4.53
Blended Fair Value$6.51
Current Price$18.77
Upside-65.33%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS56.66%27.99%0.330.240.180.080.070.030.040.050.230.06
YoY Growth--35.34%38.13%109.80%21.19%98.51%-1.77%-24.04%-79.78%266.40%126.12%
Dividend Yield--3.06%3.04%1.84%0.88%0.70%0.38%0.29%0.32%1.52%0.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)522.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)133.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)388.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)104.4065.2539.15
Cash Retained (M)388.96388.96388.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-104.40-65.25-39.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)284.56323.71349.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,701.231,701.231,701.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.28
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5.93$8.49$12.88
Upside / Downside-68.42%-54.78%-31.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)522.00555.93592.07630.55671.54715.19736.64
Payout Ratio25.49%38.39%51.29%64.19%77.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)133.04213.42303.68404.78517.74643.67681.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)192.42194.25196.07
Year 2 PV (M)246.88251.58256.32
Year 3 PV (M)296.69305.21313.89
Year 4 PV (M)342.16355.31368.85
Year 5 PV (M)383.54402.06421.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,911.076,196.586,493.01
Equity Value (M)7,372.757,704.998,049.44
Shares Outstanding (M)1,701.231,701.231,701.23
Fair Value$4.33$4.53$4.73
Upside / Downside-76.91%-75.87%-74.79%

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