Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited (600875.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.12 - $45.40$29.19
Multi-Stage$14.07 - $15.39$14.72
Blended Fair Value$21.95
Current Price$19.29
Upside13.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.06%11.96%0.470.330.230.170.200.120.010.010.060.10
YoY Growth--40.46%43.88%38.95%-18.38%68.68%840.40%-14.10%-75.62%-39.15%-33.23%
Dividend Yield--3.13%2.10%1.22%1.23%1.61%1.43%0.12%0.17%0.61%0.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,263.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)43.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,220.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)652.76407.98244.79
Cash Retained (M)3,220.503,220.503,220.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-652.76-407.98-244.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,567.742,812.532,975.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,271.173,271.173,271.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.780.860.91
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.780.860.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.800.870.92
WACC / Discount Rate9.69%9.69%9.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.12$29.19$45.40
Upside / Downside4.31%51.32%135.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,263.813,475.963,701.903,942.524,198.784,471.704,605.85
Payout Ratio1.33%19.06%36.80%54.53%72.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)43.31662.571,362.152,149.883,034.274,024.534,260.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.69%9.69%9.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)598.39604.06609.74
Year 2 PV (M)1,111.051,132.221,153.58
Year 3 PV (M)1,583.721,629.181,675.51
Year 4 PV (M)2,018.702,096.332,176.19
Year 5 PV (M)2,418.182,534.982,656.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)38,291.8340,141.3442,061.64
Equity Value (M)46,021.8848,138.1250,332.90
Shares Outstanding (M)3,271.173,271.173,271.17
Fair Value$14.07$14.72$15.39
Upside / Downside-27.07%-23.71%-20.23%

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