Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu chunlan refrigerating equipment stock co.,ltd. (600854.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.52 - $45.68$42.81
Multi-Stage$6.92 - $7.57$7.24
Blended Fair Value$25.02
Current Price$5.18
Upside383.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.47%26.85%0.140.110.090.040.040.060.020.010.020.02
YoY Growth--21.74%21.05%150.00%-5.00%-33.33%200.00%66.23%-44.66%41.78%18.12%
Dividend Yield--3.02%2.58%2.03%0.76%1.16%1.57%0.43%0.25%0.27%0.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)119.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)63.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)55.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.8814.928.95
Cash Retained (M)55.4455.4455.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.88-14.92-8.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.5640.5146.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)519.73519.73519.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.52$42.81$45.68
Upside / Downside296.17%726.43%781.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)119.38127.14135.40144.20153.58163.56168.47
Payout Ratio53.56%60.85%68.14%75.42%82.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)63.9477.3692.26108.77127.03147.20155.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)72.0072.6873.36
Year 2 PV (M)79.9081.4382.96
Year 3 PV (M)87.6790.1892.75
Year 4 PV (M)95.2898.95102.72
Year 5 PV (M)102.76107.72112.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,157.933,310.463,468.83
Equity Value (M)3,595.543,761.423,933.49
Shares Outstanding (M)519.73519.73519.73
Fair Value$6.92$7.24$7.57
Upside / Downside33.55%39.71%46.11%

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