Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sichuan Changhong Electric Co.,Ltd. (600839.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.23 - $46.48$16.51
Multi-Stage$19.46 - $21.41$20.42
Blended Fair Value$18.47
Current Price$10.47
Upside76.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.25%3.73%0.220.230.180.010.250.320.300.210.110.09
YoY Growth---3.47%23.84%1,733.96%-95.92%-23.24%8.18%39.34%85.39%27.53%-41.05%
Dividend Yield--2.13%4.03%3.89%0.34%9.46%11.78%8.02%6.77%2.69%2.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,366.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)494.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)872.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)273.36170.85102.51
Cash Retained (M)872.34872.34872.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-273.36-170.85-102.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)598.98701.49769.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,617.854,617.854,617.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.260.27
WACC / Discount Rate4.34%4.34%4.34%
Growth Rate1.73%2.73%3.73%
Fair Value$9.23$16.51$46.48
Upside / Downside-11.89%57.73%343.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,366.791,404.101,442.431,481.811,522.271,563.821,610.74
Payout Ratio36.18%46.94%57.71%68.47%79.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)494.45659.10832.371,014.601,206.171,407.441,489.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.34%4.34%4.34%
Growth Rate1.73%2.73%3.73%
Year 1 PV (M)625.53631.68637.82
Year 2 PV (M)749.73764.55779.50
Year 3 PV (M)867.33893.16919.50
Year 4 PV (M)978.581,017.631,057.83
Year 5 PV (M)1,083.711,138.031,194.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)85,547.7889,835.9194,294.29
Equity Value (M)89,852.6794,280.9598,883.47
Shares Outstanding (M)4,617.854,617.854,617.85
Fair Value$19.46$20.42$21.41
Upside / Downside85.84%95.00%104.52%

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