Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

ENN Natural Gas Co., Ltd. (600803.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.26 - $30.70$23.71
Multi-Stage$14.74 - $16.06$15.39
Blended Fair Value$19.55
Current Price$17.98
Upside8.73%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS73.72%33.32%1.310.740.290.180.080.080.200.190.130.12
YoY Growth--77.16%160.06%61.56%112.54%0.00%-57.63%1.19%45.57%13.83%57.87%
Dividend Yield--6.71%3.94%1.37%1.00%0.47%0.96%1.60%1.65%0.99%0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,427.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)996.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,431.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)885.58553.49332.09
Cash Retained (M)3,431.713,431.713,431.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-885.58-553.49-332.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,546.132,878.233,099.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,061.203,061.203,061.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.830.941.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.830.941.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.161.271.34
WACC / Discount Rate12.19%12.19%12.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18.26$23.71$30.70
Upside / Downside1.56%31.86%70.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,427.884,715.695,022.215,348.665,696.326,066.586,248.58
Payout Ratio22.50%36.00%49.50%63.00%76.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)996.171,697.562,485.923,369.604,357.665,459.925,779.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.19%12.19%12.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,498.971,513.181,527.39
Year 2 PV (M)1,938.311,975.232,012.49
Year 3 PV (M)2,319.962,386.562,454.42
Year 4 PV (M)2,649.252,751.132,855.92
Year 5 PV (M)2,931.053,072.623,219.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,780.9735,412.6037,106.68
Equity Value (M)45,118.5047,111.3249,176.51
Shares Outstanding (M)3,061.203,061.203,061.20
Fair Value$14.74$15.39$16.06
Upside / Downside-18.03%-14.41%-10.65%

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