Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

China Marine Information Electronics Company Limited (600764.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.91 - $16.24$10.16
Multi-Stage$4.94 - $5.40$5.17
Blended Fair Value$7.66
Current Price$31.31
Upside-75.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.90%47.48%0.230.250.360.320.270.050.030.000.020.00
YoY Growth---8.56%-31.20%13.63%15.73%420.28%51.96%638.85%-73.29%277.04%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.81%1.14%1.40%1.18%1.00%0.19%0.10%0.02%0.06%0.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)233.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)162.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)46.6229.1417.48
Cash Retained (M)162.17162.17162.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-46.62-29.14-17.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)115.54133.03144.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)710.79710.79710.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.290.30
WACC / Discount Rate9.51%9.51%9.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.91$10.16$16.24
Upside / Downside-77.94%-67.55%-48.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)233.11248.26264.40281.58299.89319.38328.96
Payout Ratio30.43%42.35%54.26%66.17%78.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70.94105.13143.46186.33234.17287.44304.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.51%9.51%9.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)95.1096.0096.90
Year 2 PV (M)117.40119.63121.89
Year 3 PV (M)137.93141.89145.93
Year 4 PV (M)156.81162.84169.04
Year 5 PV (M)174.12182.53191.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,832.442,969.253,111.29
Equity Value (M)3,513.793,672.143,836.31
Shares Outstanding (M)710.79710.79710.79
Fair Value$4.94$5.17$5.40
Upside / Downside-84.21%-83.50%-82.76%

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