Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited (600760.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.27 - $36.29$25.32
Multi-Stage$14.05 - $15.32$14.67
Blended Fair Value$20.00
Current Price$71.83
Upside-72.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS115.85%33.09%0.400.290.250.160.080.010.010.030.020.02
YoY Growth--39.94%13.97%52.25%116.01%793.23%19.53%-72.18%3.88%10.28%-2.32%
Dividend Yield--0.94%0.78%0.65%0.41%0.23%0.06%0.04%0.15%0.14%0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,937.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,103.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,834.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)587.55367.22220.33
Cash Retained (M)1,834.661,834.661,834.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-587.55-367.22-220.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,247.111,467.441,614.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,761.992,761.992,761.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.530.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.530.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.850.930.98
WACC / Discount Rate10.41%10.41%10.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18.27$25.32$36.29
Upside / Downside-74.57%-64.75%-49.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,937.743,128.693,332.053,548.643,779.304,024.954,145.70
Payout Ratio37.55%48.04%58.53%69.02%79.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,103.081,502.991,950.222,449.253,004.913,622.463,834.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.41%10.41%10.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,348.441,361.221,374.01
Year 2 PV (M)1,569.781,599.681,629.87
Year 3 PV (M)1,768.751,819.521,871.26
Year 4 PV (M)1,946.902,021.772,098.78
Year 5 PV (M)2,105.682,207.392,312.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,065.1831,517.3433,025.07
Equity Value (M)38,804.7340,526.9342,311.97
Shares Outstanding (M)2,761.992,761.992,761.99
Fair Value$14.05$14.67$15.32
Upside / Downside-80.44%-79.57%-78.67%

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