Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Liaoning Cheng Da Co., Ltd. (600739.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DistributionSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.01 - $11.97$9.16
Multi-Stage$12.98 - $14.26$13.61
Blended Fair Value$11.38
Current Price$12.29
Upside-7.38%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.68%15.57%0.520.590.670.640.480.340.520.330.330.32
YoY Growth---12.03%-11.62%3.69%34.88%39.44%-33.98%55.06%1.95%3.70%158.97%
Dividend Yield--4.96%5.70%5.12%4.01%2.34%1.88%3.39%1.85%1.85%1.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)862.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)398.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)463.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)172.56107.8564.71
Cash Retained (M)463.89463.89463.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-172.56-107.85-64.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)291.33356.04399.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,522.311,522.311,522.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.230.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.230.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.500.52
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate0.02%1.02%2.02%
Fair Value$7.01$9.16$11.97
Upside / Downside-42.96%-25.47%-2.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)862.79871.63880.56889.59898.71907.92935.15
Payout Ratio46.23%54.99%63.74%72.49%81.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)398.90479.28561.27644.89730.17817.12865.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate0.02%1.02%2.02%
Year 1 PV (M)445.60450.05454.51
Year 2 PV (M)485.15494.90504.75
Year 3 PV (M)518.25533.95549.97
Year 4 PV (M)545.54567.69590.50
Year 5 PV (M)567.60596.55626.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,193.0318,069.8318,982.04
Equity Value (M)19,755.1820,712.9721,708.42
Shares Outstanding (M)1,522.311,522.311,522.31
Fair Value$12.98$13.61$14.26
Upside / Downside5.59%10.71%16.03%

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