Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Wuchan Zhongda Group Co.,Ltd. (600704.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.87 - $23.22$16.36
Multi-Stage$18.44 - $20.27$19.34
Blended Fair Value$17.85
Current Price$6.01
Upside196.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.08%3.31%0.490.550.540.520.540.490.430.490.330.37
YoY Growth---11.60%3.32%2.79%-2.81%9.17%13.30%-11.85%49.53%-11.63%5.38%
Dividend Yield--9.70%12.19%11.04%9.76%11.03%10.23%7.42%7.38%4.64%5.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,798.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)856.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,942.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)759.75474.84284.91
Cash Retained (M)2,942.092,942.092,942.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-759.75-474.84-284.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,182.342,467.242,657.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,155.255,155.255,155.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.480.52
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.480.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.590.640.68
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate1.31%2.31%3.31%
Fair Value$11.87$16.36$23.22
Upside / Downside97.44%172.15%286.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,798.763,886.563,976.394,068.304,162.334,258.534,386.29
Payout Ratio22.55%36.04%49.53%63.02%76.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)856.671,400.751,969.542,563.863,184.613,832.684,057.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate1.31%2.31%3.31%
Year 1 PV (M)1,304.311,317.191,330.06
Year 2 PV (M)1,707.661,741.541,775.75
Year 3 PV (M)2,069.912,131.822,194.94
Year 4 PV (M)2,394.052,489.982,588.77
Year 5 PV (M)2,682.872,817.912,958.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)84,919.5289,194.1093,639.10
Equity Value (M)95,078.3399,692.54104,486.96
Shares Outstanding (M)5,155.255,155.255,155.25
Fair Value$18.44$19.34$20.27
Upside / Downside206.87%221.76%237.24%

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