Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Harbin Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (600664.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.49 - $7.98$5.09
Multi-Stage$2.84 - $3.11$2.97
Blended Fair Value$4.03
Current Price$3.57
Upside12.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS35.43%-10.60%0.020.020.020.020.010.000.520.520.030.74
YoY Growth--6.68%-18.69%-11.77%333.04%37.47%-99.23%0.36%1,511.47%-95.66%1,233.00%
Dividend Yield--0.49%0.56%0.67%0.67%0.20%0.10%8.07%9.91%0.42%9.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)449.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)427.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)89.8356.1433.69
Cash Retained (M)427.66427.66427.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-89.83-56.14-33.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)337.83371.52393.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,607.562,607.562,607.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate8.59%8.59%8.59%
Growth Rate4.47%5.47%6.47%
Fair Value$3.49$5.09$7.98
Upside / Downside-2.26%42.47%123.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)449.15473.71499.61526.93555.74586.12603.70
Payout Ratio4.79%21.83%38.87%55.91%72.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.50103.40194.21294.63405.45527.51558.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.59%8.59%8.59%
Growth Rate4.47%5.47%6.47%
Year 1 PV (M)94.3295.2296.13
Year 2 PV (M)161.58164.69167.83
Year 3 PV (M)223.59230.08236.68
Year 4 PV (M)280.66291.56302.78
Year 5 PV (M)333.07349.32366.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,304.416,611.996,931.45
Equity Value (M)7,397.647,742.868,101.06
Shares Outstanding (M)2,607.562,607.562,607.56
Fair Value$2.84$2.97$3.11
Upside / Downside-20.53%-16.82%-12.98%

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