Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai New Huang Pu Industrial Group Co., Ltd. (600638.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.31 - $3.60$2.91
Multi-Stage$5.68 - $6.24$5.96
Blended Fair Value$4.43
Current Price$6.08
Upside-27.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.29%-5.38%0.310.330.420.460.300.670.540.450.370.37
YoY Growth---5.55%-21.84%-8.48%54.86%-55.79%23.45%20.11%21.86%-0.22%-31.06%
Dividend Yield--6.18%7.30%7.33%7.19%5.22%12.69%5.17%3.71%2.22%3.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)162.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)148.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)14.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32.5420.3412.20
Cash Retained (M)14.1214.1214.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-32.54-20.34-12.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)-18.42-6.221.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)674.21674.21674.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.31$2.91$3.60
Upside / Downside-62.03%-52.22%-40.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)162.69161.07159.46157.86156.28154.72159.36
Payout Ratio91.32%91.06%90.79%90.53%90.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)148.57146.66144.77142.91141.07139.25147.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)136.71138.11139.50
Year 2 PV (M)125.80128.38130.98
Year 3 PV (M)115.75119.33122.98
Year 4 PV (M)106.51110.92115.47
Year 5 PV (M)98.00103.10108.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,246.943,416.013,592.06
Equity Value (M)3,829.704,015.854,209.41
Shares Outstanding (M)674.21674.21674.21
Fair Value$5.68$5.96$6.24
Upside / Downside-6.57%-2.03%2.69%

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