Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shanghai Dragon Corporation (600630.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.27 - $0.35$0.31
Multi-Stage$0.55 - $0.61$0.58
Blended Fair Value$0.45
Current Price$9.18
Upside-95.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.54%0.64%0.030.030.050.050.060.060.130.030.090.06
YoY Growth--14.41%-39.64%7.52%-26.29%4.70%-53.00%303.08%-63.81%44.41%87.92%
Dividend Yield--0.39%0.30%0.92%0.80%1.18%0.79%1.32%0.31%0.60%0.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)31.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.333.952.37
Cash Retained (M)25.6225.6225.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.33-3.95-2.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.3021.6723.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)445.39445.39445.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.060.07
WACC / Discount Rate8.91%8.91%8.91%
Growth Rate-10.12%-9.12%-8.12%
Fair Value$0.27$0.31$0.35
Upside / Downside-97.08%-96.59%-96.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)31.6328.7426.1223.7421.5819.6120.20
Payout Ratio18.99%33.19%47.39%61.60%75.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.019.5412.3814.6216.3617.6518.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.91%8.91%8.91%
Growth Rate-10.12%-9.12%-8.12%
Year 1 PV (M)8.668.768.86
Year 2 PV (M)10.2110.4410.67
Year 3 PV (M)10.9511.3211.70
Year 4 PV (M)11.1211.6312.15
Year 5 PV (M)10.9011.5212.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)195.26206.36217.97
Equity Value (M)247.10260.03273.51
Shares Outstanding (M)445.39445.39445.39
Fair Value$0.55$0.58$0.61
Upside / Downside-93.96%-93.64%-93.31%

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