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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Chinafortune Co., Ltd. (600621.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - ConglomeratesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$90.40 - $106.50$99.81
Multi-Stage$21.71 - $23.79$22.73
Blended Fair Value$61.27
Current Price$16.57
Upside269.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.42%10.61%0.410.380.470.420.210.140.400.200.270.10
YoY Growth--8.48%-20.27%12.29%97.38%55.53%-65.34%98.23%-25.50%163.22%-31.75%
Dividend Yield--2.90%2.64%4.09%3.43%1.28%0.89%2.35%1.45%1.95%0.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)567.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)136.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)430.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)113.4170.8842.53
Cash Retained (M)430.39430.39430.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-113.41-70.88-42.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)316.98359.51387.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,058.861,058.861,058.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.340.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.340.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.50
WACC / Discount Rate5.54%5.54%5.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$90.40$99.81$106.50
Upside / Downside445.55%502.35%542.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)567.05603.91643.16684.97729.49776.91800.22
Payout Ratio24.10%37.28%50.46%63.64%76.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)136.66225.14324.54435.92560.40699.22740.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.54%5.54%5.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)211.31213.31215.32
Year 2 PV (M)285.89291.34296.83
Year 3 PV (M)360.41370.76381.30
Year 4 PV (M)434.87451.59468.79
Year 5 PV (M)509.26533.86559.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,184.4922,207.7123,270.09
Equity Value (M)22,986.2424,068.5725,191.74
Shares Outstanding (M)1,058.861,058.861,058.86
Fair Value$21.71$22.73$23.79
Upside / Downside31.01%37.18%43.58%

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