Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanghai Highly (Group) Co., Ltd. (600619.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.34 - $0.50$0.42
Multi-Stage$0.59 - $0.65$0.62
Blended Fair Value$0.52
Current Price$24.81
Upside-97.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.22%-1.94%0.100.120.180.180.160.130.160.130.110.10
YoY Growth---17.07%-35.99%2.32%10.40%27.57%-22.81%28.38%12.83%10.19%-12.79%
Dividend Yield--0.70%1.92%2.82%2.64%2.14%1.49%1.55%1.21%0.96%0.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)66.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)61.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.298.314.99
Cash Retained (M)4.994.994.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.29-8.31-4.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)-8.31-3.320.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,475.951,475.951,475.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.040.04
WACC / Discount Rate8.93%8.93%8.93%
Growth Rate-1.48%-0.48%0.52%
Fair Value$0.34$0.42$0.50
Upside / Downside-98.63%-98.32%-97.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)66.4766.1565.8465.5265.2164.9066.84
Payout Ratio92.50%92.00%91.50%91.00%90.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)61.4860.8660.2459.6259.0158.4161.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.93%8.93%8.93%
Growth Rate-1.48%-0.48%0.52%
Year 1 PV (M)55.3155.8756.43
Year 2 PV (M)49.7550.7751.79
Year 3 PV (M)44.7646.1347.54
Year 4 PV (M)40.2641.9243.63
Year 5 PV (M)36.2138.0940.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)646.70680.20715.06
Equity Value (M)872.99912.98954.50
Shares Outstanding (M)1,475.951,475.951,475.95
Fair Value$0.59$0.62$0.65
Upside / Downside-97.62%-97.51%-97.39%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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