Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Company Limited (600616.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.17 - $0.22$0.20
Multi-Stage$0.28 - $0.31$0.30
Blended Fair Value$0.25
Current Price$5.45
Upside-95.46%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS77.71%-4.50%0.050.030.030.030.020.000.040.040.040.04
YoY Growth--74.87%-8.11%-0.22%41.79%679.75%-92.83%7.29%0.00%0.00%-53.74%
Dividend Yield--0.96%0.49%0.42%0.51%0.33%0.08%0.83%0.62%0.39%0.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)25.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.173.231.94
Cash Retained (M)23.2223.2223.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.17-3.23-1.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.0519.9921.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)689.54689.54689.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.030.030.03
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-6.77%-5.77%-4.77%
Fair Value$0.17$0.20$0.22
Upside / Downside-96.94%-96.40%-95.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)25.8324.3522.9421.6220.3719.2019.77
Payout Ratio10.12%26.10%42.07%58.05%74.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.626.359.6512.5515.0817.2818.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-6.77%-5.77%-4.77%
Year 1 PV (M)5.725.785.84
Year 2 PV (M)7.817.988.15
Year 3 PV (M)9.139.439.73
Year 4 PV (M)9.8710.3010.74
Year 5 PV (M)10.1710.7311.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)153.81162.24171.03
Equity Value (M)196.51206.45216.80
Shares Outstanding (M)689.54689.54689.54
Fair Value$0.28$0.30$0.31
Upside / Downside-94.77%-94.51%-94.23%

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