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Lao Feng Xiang Co., Ltd. (600612.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Luxury GoodsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$49.54 - $96.75$68.24
Multi-Stage$76.47 - $83.86$80.10
Blended Fair Value$74.17
Current Price$50.08
Upside48.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.66%4.83%1.951.962.031.811.781.711.481.371.271.23
YoY Growth---0.52%-3.51%12.33%1.39%4.31%15.69%7.79%7.55%3.53%1.21%
Dividend Yield--3.82%2.33%3.76%4.26%3.21%4.27%3.29%3.35%3.24%3.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,611.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,114.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)496.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)322.30201.44120.86
Cash Retained (M)496.55496.55496.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-322.30-201.44-120.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)174.26295.12375.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)523.12523.12523.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.560.72
LTM Dividend per Share2.132.132.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.560.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.462.702.85
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate1.46%2.46%3.46%
Fair Value$49.54$68.24$96.75
Upside / Downside-1.08%36.26%93.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,611.481,651.141,691.781,733.421,776.081,819.801,874.39
Payout Ratio69.19%73.35%77.51%81.67%85.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,114.931,211.101,311.331,415.761,524.541,637.821,733.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate1.46%2.46%3.46%
Year 1 PV (M)1,126.001,137.101,148.19
Year 2 PV (M)1,133.511,155.971,178.64
Year 3 PV (M)1,137.791,171.761,206.41
Year 4 PV (M)1,139.111,184.691,231.62
Year 5 PV (M)1,137.751,194.941,254.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,329.9336,055.3937,849.54
Equity Value (M)40,004.1041,899.8443,868.79
Shares Outstanding (M)523.12523.12523.12
Fair Value$76.47$80.10$83.86
Upside / Downside52.70%59.94%67.45%

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