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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang CONBA Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd. (600572.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.44 - $3.82$3.08
Multi-Stage$5.64 - $6.21$5.92
Blended Fair Value$4.50
Current Price$4.35
Upside3.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.19%9.18%0.190.150.180.030.050.190.180.120.100.14
YoY Growth--24.61%-14.32%476.80%-40.47%-72.46%6.81%52.62%12.65%-24.29%71.47%
Dividend Yield--4.28%3.14%3.02%0.63%1.25%3.68%1.73%1.66%1.55%1.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)687.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)382.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)305.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)137.6086.0051.60
Cash Retained (M)305.56305.56305.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-137.60-86.00-51.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)167.97219.56253.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,733.302,733.302,733.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate-1.81%-0.81%0.19%
Fair Value$2.44$3.08$3.82
Upside / Downside-43.91%-29.30%-12.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)687.99682.45676.94671.48666.07660.70680.52
Payout Ratio55.59%62.47%69.35%76.23%83.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)382.43426.32469.47511.90553.62594.63629.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate-1.81%-0.81%0.19%
Year 1 PV (M)397.02401.06405.11
Year 2 PV (M)407.16415.50423.92
Year 3 PV (M)413.45426.21439.23
Year 4 PV (M)416.41433.64451.39
Year 5 PV (M)416.52438.17460.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,373.7114,068.7114,792.30
Equity Value (M)15,424.2716,183.2816,972.65
Shares Outstanding (M)2,733.302,733.302,733.30
Fair Value$5.64$5.92$6.21
Upside / Downside29.73%36.11%42.75%

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