Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Keda Industrial Group Co., Ltd. (600499.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$62.90 - $154.00$144.32
Multi-Stage$22.39 - $24.50$23.43
Blended Fair Value$83.87
Current Price$12.23
Upside585.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS32.67%13.98%0.410.830.240.160.080.100.130.100.110.12
YoY Growth---50.47%249.31%53.65%97.56%-21.76%-20.15%21.81%-9.27%-4.37%6.72%
Dividend Yield--4.91%7.79%1.65%0.86%0.72%2.42%2.27%1.11%1.45%1.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,452.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)497.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)955.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)290.51181.57108.94
Cash Retained (M)955.39955.39955.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-290.51-181.57-108.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)664.87773.82846.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,875.871,875.871,875.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.410.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.410.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.620.680.72
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$62.90$144.32$154.00
Upside / Downside414.28%1,080.03%1,159.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,452.561,546.981,647.531,754.621,868.671,990.132,049.84
Payout Ratio34.23%45.38%56.54%67.69%78.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)497.17702.05931.461,187.721,473.361,791.121,896.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)652.77658.96665.15
Year 2 PV (M)805.29820.62836.11
Year 3 PV (M)954.76982.171,010.10
Year 4 PV (M)1,101.251,143.601,187.16
Year 5 PV (M)1,244.781,304.911,367.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)37,234.1839,032.6040,899.86
Equity Value (M)41,993.0343,942.8645,965.70
Shares Outstanding (M)1,875.871,875.871,875.87
Fair Value$22.39$23.43$24.50
Upside / Downside83.04%91.54%100.36%

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