Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nantong Jiangshan Agrochemical & Chemicals Co.,Ltd. (600389.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.59 - $25.60$19.27
Multi-Stage$26.53 - $29.17$27.82
Blended Fair Value$23.55
Current Price$26.10
Upside-9.78%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.42%2.26%0.270.142.121.030.900.280.180.040.010.14
YoY Growth--90.19%-93.32%105.63%14.50%227.50%53.85%390.57%165.00%-90.32%-34.04%
Dividend Yield--1.80%1.06%7.73%3.27%5.99%2.06%1.38%0.29%0.11%1.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)478.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)162.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)315.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)95.6259.7635.86
Cash Retained (M)315.19315.19315.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-95.62-59.76-35.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)219.58255.43279.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)431.20431.20431.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.510.590.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.510.590.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.890.971.03
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate0.26%1.26%2.26%
Fair Value$14.59$19.27$25.60
Upside / Downside-44.12%-26.15%-1.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)478.08484.10490.19496.35502.60508.92524.19
Payout Ratio34.07%45.26%56.44%67.63%78.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)162.89219.09276.68335.68396.12458.03484.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate0.26%1.26%2.26%
Year 1 PV (M)203.96206.00208.03
Year 2 PV (M)239.79244.60249.46
Year 3 PV (M)270.84279.03287.38
Year 4 PV (M)297.55309.60322.01
Year 5 PV (M)320.30336.60353.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,107.1010,621.3111,156.24
Equity Value (M)11,439.5511,997.1312,576.66
Shares Outstanding (M)431.20431.20431.20
Fair Value$26.53$27.82$29.17
Upside / Downside1.65%6.60%11.75%

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