Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Mingzhu Group Co.,Ltd (600382.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.35 - $3.37$2.85
Multi-Stage$3.39 - $3.73$3.56
Blended Fair Value$3.20
Current Price$6.05
Upside-47.05%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.40%23.54%0.130.241.120.200.060.130.120.070.050.02
YoY Growth---44.29%-78.57%465.92%245.08%-56.24%12.90%77.00%30.40%112.43%46.62%
Dividend Yield--2.95%5.67%24.71%3.52%1.03%2.79%1.92%0.90%0.54%0.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)216.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)213.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)43.3627.1016.26
Cash Retained (M)213.60213.60213.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-43.36-27.10-16.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)170.25186.51197.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)636.54636.54636.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.290.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.290.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate9.79%9.79%9.79%
Growth Rate-1.60%-0.60%0.40%
Fair Value$2.35$2.85$3.37
Upside / Downside-61.11%-52.90%-44.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)216.78215.48214.18212.90211.61210.34216.65
Payout Ratio1.47%19.17%36.88%54.59%72.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.1841.3178.99116.21152.98189.31200.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.79%9.79%9.79%
Growth Rate-1.60%-0.60%0.40%
Year 1 PV (M)37.2537.6338.01
Year 2 PV (M)64.2265.5366.85
Year 3 PV (M)85.1887.8190.48
Year 4 PV (M)101.11105.28109.58
Year 5 PV (M)112.81118.66124.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,758.101,849.271,944.18
Equity Value (M)2,158.672,264.182,373.86
Shares Outstanding (M)636.54636.54636.54
Fair Value$3.39$3.56$3.73
Upside / Downside-43.95%-41.21%-38.36%

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