Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shaanxi Baoguang Vacuum Electric Device Co., Ltd. (600379.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.19 - $42.64$39.96
Multi-Stage$24.94 - $27.36$26.13
Blended Fair Value$33.04
Current Price$12.49
Upside164.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.51%13.47%0.110.050.070.050.080.050.030.040.010.02
YoY Growth--98.46%-16.48%41.50%-44.42%79.34%80.23%-38.80%185.18%-14.53%-43.71%
Dividend Yield--1.12%0.62%0.58%0.39%1.07%0.88%0.43%0.63%0.09%0.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)70.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)37.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.168.855.31
Cash Retained (M)37.5937.5937.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.16-8.85-5.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.4328.7432.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)330.15330.15330.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate2.10%2.10%2.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$36.19$39.96$42.64
Upside / Downside189.78%219.95%241.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)70.7975.3980.2985.5191.0796.9999.90
Payout Ratio46.90%55.52%64.14%72.76%81.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.2041.8651.5062.2274.1187.2992.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.10%2.10%2.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)40.6141.0041.38
Year 2 PV (M)48.4849.4150.34
Year 3 PV (M)56.8358.4660.12
Year 4 PV (M)65.6868.2170.81
Year 5 PV (M)75.0678.6882.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,945.748,329.538,728.00
Equity Value (M)8,232.418,625.299,033.10
Shares Outstanding (M)330.15330.15330.15
Fair Value$24.94$26.13$27.36
Upside / Downside99.64%109.17%119.06%

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