Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo Yunsheng Co., Ltd. (600366.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.73 - $13.27$8.39
Multi-Stage$4.04 - $4.41$4.22
Blended Fair Value$6.31
Current Price$14.31
Upside-55.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.52%1.12%0.080.140.160.130.060.120.180.130.120.11
YoY Growth---43.35%-11.59%26.20%102.28%-47.09%-35.60%44.11%6.10%11.95%49.94%
Dividend Yield--0.97%2.15%1.65%1.13%0.90%1.82%2.64%1.36%1.12%0.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)301.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)261.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)60.3737.7322.64
Cash Retained (M)261.38261.38261.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-60.37-37.73-22.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)201.01223.65238.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,090.461,090.461,090.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.26
WACC / Discount Rate9.57%9.57%9.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5.73$8.39$13.27
Upside / Downside-59.93%-41.36%-7.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)301.83321.45342.35364.60388.30413.54425.95
Payout Ratio13.40%28.72%44.04%59.36%74.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.4692.33150.78216.43289.98372.18394.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.57%9.57%9.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)83.4784.2685.05
Year 2 PV (M)123.23125.58127.95
Year 3 PV (M)159.92164.51169.19
Year 4 PV (M)193.71201.16208.83
Year 5 PV (M)224.77235.63246.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,619.663,794.493,976.01
Equity Value (M)4,404.774,605.644,813.93
Shares Outstanding (M)1,090.461,090.461,090.46
Fair Value$4.04$4.22$4.41
Upside / Downside-71.77%-70.49%-69.15%

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