Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Gansu Dunhuang Seed Group Co.,Ltd. (600354.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.93 - $1.35$1.14
Multi-Stage$1.71 - $1.89$1.80
Blended Fair Value$1.47
Current Price$6.17
Upside-76.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-19.58%-17.31%0.030.140.040.040.080.090.130.110.120.15
YoY Growth---79.20%222.99%2.15%-45.81%-9.56%-31.97%9.95%-1.99%-23.82%-20.47%
Dividend Yield--0.52%2.39%0.61%0.66%1.96%2.61%2.62%1.53%1.49%2.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)69.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)60.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.828.645.18
Cash Retained (M)60.7360.7360.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.82-8.64-5.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)46.9152.0955.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)527.87527.87527.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate8.07%8.07%8.07%
Growth Rate-2.83%-1.83%-0.83%
Fair Value$0.93$1.14$1.35
Upside / Downside-84.86%-81.57%-78.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)69.1267.8566.6265.4064.2163.0364.92
Payout Ratio12.13%27.70%43.28%58.85%74.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.3818.8028.8338.4947.7956.7360.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.07%8.07%8.07%
Growth Rate-2.83%-1.83%-0.83%
Year 1 PV (M)17.2217.4017.57
Year 2 PV (M)24.1924.6925.19
Year 3 PV (M)29.5730.5031.44
Year 4 PV (M)33.6335.0436.48
Year 5 PV (M)36.5738.4940.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)763.81803.93845.71
Equity Value (M)904.98950.03996.89
Shares Outstanding (M)527.87527.87527.87
Fair Value$1.71$1.80$1.89
Upside / Downside-72.21%-70.83%-69.39%

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