Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shan Xi Huayang Group New Energy Co.,Ltd. (600348.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.53 - $83.54$27.19
Multi-Stage$12.65 - $13.87$13.25
Blended Fair Value$20.22
Current Price$7.37
Upside174.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS37.54%18.41%0.920.800.340.500.420.190.320.190.140.11
YoY Growth--15.39%138.83%-33.13%19.22%123.99%-40.82%65.47%35.70%33.69%-38.04%
Dividend Yield--13.72%8.67%3.64%6.23%12.49%6.12%7.62%3.99%3.09%2.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,529.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)549.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)980.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)305.99191.24114.75
Cash Retained (M)980.94980.94980.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-305.99-191.24-114.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)674.95789.70866.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,583.473,583.473,583.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate3.77%4.77%5.77%
Fair Value$14.53$27.19$83.54
Upside / Downside97.15%268.98%1,033.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,529.941,602.861,679.261,759.301,843.161,931.011,988.94
Payout Ratio35.88%46.71%57.53%68.35%79.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)549.00748.65966.081,202.541,459.351,737.911,839.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate3.77%4.77%5.77%
Year 1 PV (M)698.18704.91711.64
Year 2 PV (M)840.21856.49872.91
Year 3 PV (M)975.361,003.831,032.85
Year 4 PV (M)1,103.851,147.021,191.44
Year 5 PV (M)1,225.921,286.151,348.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,485.1942,473.9444,540.08
Equity Value (M)45,328.7147,472.3249,697.64
Shares Outstanding (M)3,583.473,583.473,583.47
Fair Value$12.65$13.25$13.87
Upside / Downside71.63%79.75%88.18%

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