Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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V V Food & Beverage Co.,Ltd (600300.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.45 - $2.04$1.74
Multi-Stage$4.31 - $4.76$4.53
Blended Fair Value$3.14
Current Price$3.34
Upside-6.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.76%-4.06%0.070.030.030.130.070.090.090.080.100.08
YoY Growth--119.13%9.45%-78.60%95.04%-21.73%-2.02%8.79%-19.38%23.00%-20.27%
Dividend Yield--2.06%1.08%0.90%3.00%1.87%2.64%2.52%1.97%1.56%1.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)406.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)210.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)195.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)81.2850.8030.48
Cash Retained (M)195.41195.41195.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-81.28-50.80-30.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)114.13144.61164.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,701.651,701.651,701.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-6.06%-5.06%-4.06%
Fair Value$1.45$1.74$2.04
Upside / Downside-56.58%-47.78%-38.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)406.40385.82366.28347.73330.12313.40322.80
Payout Ratio51.92%59.53%67.15%74.77%82.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)210.99229.69245.96259.98271.96282.06298.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-6.06%-5.06%-4.06%
Year 1 PV (M)213.78216.06218.33
Year 2 PV (M)213.07217.63222.24
Year 3 PV (M)209.62216.38223.29
Year 4 PV (M)204.09212.92222.03
Year 5 PV (M)197.00207.71218.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,300.896,643.497,000.84
Equity Value (M)7,338.457,714.208,105.62
Shares Outstanding (M)1,701.651,701.651,701.65
Fair Value$4.31$4.53$4.76
Upside / Downside29.12%35.73%42.62%

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