Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Rising Nonferrous Metals Share Co.,Ltd. (600259.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.02 - $6.94$5.28
Multi-Stage$4.81 - $5.27$5.04
Blended Fair Value$5.16
Current Price$57.74
Upside-91.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.30%-0.31%0.210.330.260.270.200.170.240.000.340.36
YoY Growth---37.00%28.29%-5.14%33.15%20.92%-30.37%0.00%-100.00%-4.83%68.00%
Dividend Yield--0.62%1.08%0.64%0.69%0.54%0.61%0.68%0.00%0.79%0.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)104.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)59.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.9213.077.84
Cash Retained (M)59.3759.3759.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.92-13.07-7.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)38.4546.2951.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)337.04337.04337.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate8.62%8.62%8.62%
Growth Rate2.30%3.30%4.30%
Fair Value$4.02$5.28$6.94
Upside / Downside-93.04%-90.86%-87.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)104.58108.03111.60115.29119.09123.03126.72
Payout Ratio43.23%52.59%61.94%71.29%80.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45.2156.8169.1382.1996.04110.72117.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.62%8.62%8.62%
Growth Rate2.30%3.30%4.30%
Year 1 PV (M)51.8052.3052.81
Year 2 PV (M)57.4658.5959.73
Year 3 PV (M)62.3064.1466.02
Year 4 PV (M)66.3769.0071.72
Year 5 PV (M)69.7673.2476.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,314.731,380.261,448.37
Equity Value (M)1,622.421,697.541,775.50
Shares Outstanding (M)337.04337.04337.04
Fair Value$4.81$5.04$5.27
Upside / Downside-91.66%-91.28%-90.88%

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