Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xinjiang Guannong Fruit & Antler Co.,Ltd. (600251.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.59 - $56.43$52.89
Multi-Stage$8.89 - $9.73$9.30
Blended Fair Value$31.09
Current Price$8.21
Upside278.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS42.20%12.03%0.530.280.150.100.030.090.140.100.140.16
YoY Growth--88.04%90.25%53.80%204.29%-65.27%-32.99%35.47%-30.00%-13.31%-2.75%
Dividend Yield--7.51%3.28%1.74%0.98%0.46%1.36%2.17%1.42%1.65%2.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)219.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)110.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)109.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)43.9527.4716.48
Cash Retained (M)109.58109.58109.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-43.95-27.47-16.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)65.6382.1193.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)774.36774.36774.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$29.59$52.89$56.43
Upside / Downside260.47%544.18%587.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)219.74234.02249.23265.43282.69301.06310.09
Payout Ratio50.13%58.11%66.08%74.05%82.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)110.16135.98164.69196.56231.88270.95286.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)126.71127.91129.11
Year 2 PV (M)143.00145.72148.47
Year 3 PV (M)159.03163.60168.25
Year 4 PV (M)174.82181.54188.45
Year 5 PV (M)190.35199.54209.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,089.186,383.296,688.66
Equity Value (M)6,883.097,201.617,532.03
Shares Outstanding (M)774.36774.36774.36
Fair Value$8.89$9.30$9.73
Upside / Downside8.27%13.28%18.47%

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