Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Henan Taloph Pharmaceutical Stock Co.,Ltd (600222.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.70 - $3.96$2.49
Multi-Stage$3.76 - $4.14$3.95
Blended Fair Value$3.22
Current Price$6.49
Upside-50.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.67%2.90%0.130.090.120.150.120.110.120.100.000.13
YoY Growth--37.67%-21.01%-24.89%29.16%8.15%-9.65%20.49%0.00%-100.00%33.67%
Dividend Yield--2.39%1.70%1.97%1.92%2.11%1.89%2.05%2.08%0.00%1.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)46.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)43.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)3.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.395.873.52
Cash Retained (M)3.063.063.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.39-5.87-3.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)-6.34-2.81-0.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)550.10550.10550.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.01-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.01-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.070.08
WACC / Discount Rate4.95%4.95%4.95%
Growth Rate0.90%1.90%2.90%
Fair Value$1.70$2.49$3.96
Upside / Downside-73.80%-61.58%-39.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)46.9547.8548.7649.6950.6351.5953.14
Payout Ratio93.49%92.79%92.10%91.40%90.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)43.9044.4044.9045.4145.9246.4349.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.95%4.95%4.95%
Growth Rate0.90%1.90%2.90%
Year 1 PV (M)41.8942.3042.72
Year 2 PV (M)39.9740.7641.57
Year 3 PV (M)38.1339.2840.45
Year 4 PV (M)36.3837.8539.35
Year 5 PV (M)34.7136.4638.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,880.031,975.052,073.88
Equity Value (M)2,071.102,171.702,276.25
Shares Outstanding (M)550.10550.10550.10
Fair Value$3.76$3.95$4.14
Upside / Downside-41.99%-39.17%-36.24%

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