Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Datang Telecom Technology Co., Ltd. (600198.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.11 - $0.14$0.13
Multi-Stage$0.22 - $0.25$0.23
Blended Fair Value$0.18
Current Price$8.09
Upside-97.79%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-40.84%-29.10%0.010.010.010.180.100.120.140.240.220.30
YoY Growth--28.06%-49.57%-92.73%69.84%-9.15%-18.22%-40.30%5.02%-25.33%15.68%
Dividend Yield--0.10%0.10%0.17%2.41%1.61%1.29%1.18%2.87%1.42%1.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)68.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)60.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.778.615.17
Cash Retained (M)60.5060.5060.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.77-8.61-5.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)46.7251.8955.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,306.401,306.401,306.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.050.05
WACC / Discount Rate9.01%9.01%9.01%
Growth Rate-21.24%-20.24%-19.24%
Fair Value$0.11$0.13$0.14
Upside / Downside-98.64%-98.45%-98.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)68.8754.9343.8134.9427.8722.2322.90
Payout Ratio12.15%27.72%43.29%58.86%74.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.3715.2318.9720.5720.7520.0121.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.01%9.01%9.01%
Growth Rate-21.24%-20.24%-19.24%
Year 1 PV (M)13.7913.9714.14
Year 2 PV (M)15.5615.9616.36
Year 3 PV (M)15.2915.8816.48
Year 4 PV (M)13.9714.6915.44
Year 5 PV (M)12.2013.0013.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)215.08229.09243.81
Equity Value (M)285.90302.59320.08
Shares Outstanding (M)1,306.401,306.401,306.40
Fair Value$0.22$0.23$0.25
Upside / Downside-97.29%-97.14%-96.97%

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