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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$247.06 - $291.08$272.79
Multi-Stage$474.62 - $521.10$497.43
Blended Fair Value$385.11
Current Price$40.01
Upside862.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.140.010.130.150.090.200.080.08
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%2,165.60%-94.92%-18.40%80.82%-57.49%163.01%-0.33%-48.27%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.82%0.05%1.36%2.27%0.94%2.18%0.88%0.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,950.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)653.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,296.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)790.02493.76296.26
Cash Retained (M)3,296.243,296.243,296.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-790.02-493.76-296.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,506.222,802.482,999.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,698.802,698.802,698.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.931.041.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.931.041.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.171.281.35
WACC / Discount Rate-17.04%-17.04%-17.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$247.06$272.79$291.08
Upside / Downside517.50%581.80%627.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,950.084,206.844,480.284,771.505,081.655,411.965,574.32
Payout Ratio16.55%31.24%45.93%60.62%75.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)653.851,314.312,057.872,892.543,827.024,870.765,156.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-17.04%-17.04%-17.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,569.431,584.311,599.18
Year 2 PV (M)2,934.332,990.223,046.64
Year 3 PV (M)4,925.115,066.495,210.55
Year 4 PV (M)7,781.138,080.378,388.16
Year 5 PV (M)11,825.6412,396.8312,989.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,251,875.751,312,341.821,375,122.06
Equity Value (M)1,280,911.391,342,460.031,406,356.47
Shares Outstanding (M)2,698.802,698.802,698.80
Fair Value$474.62$497.43$521.10
Upside / Downside1,086.26%1,143.26%1,202.44%

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