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Definitive Analysis

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Wuhan East Lake High Technology Group Co., Ltd. (600133.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.63 - $2.21$1.93
Multi-Stage$5.48 - $6.05$5.76
Blended Fair Value$3.84
Current Price$9.25
Upside-58.46%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.32%1.48%0.340.640.760.590.540.550.700.430.520.40
YoY Growth---47.89%-15.01%28.18%9.20%-1.12%-21.59%62.98%-18.06%31.83%36.90%
Dividend Yield--3.43%5.34%13.04%9.31%8.77%9.49%9.31%4.50%6.54%4.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)385.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)336.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)49.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)77.0548.1628.89
Cash Retained (M)49.0649.0649.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-77.05-48.16-28.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)-27.990.9020.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,061.501,061.501,061.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.000.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.000.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-9.64%-8.64%-7.64%
Fair Value$1.63$1.93$2.21
Upside / Downside-82.33%-79.17%-76.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)385.25351.98321.58293.81268.44245.26252.61
Payout Ratio87.27%87.81%88.36%88.91%89.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)336.19309.08284.15261.22240.13220.73233.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-9.64%-8.64%-7.64%
Year 1 PV (M)287.26290.43293.61
Year 2 PV (M)245.44250.90256.42
Year 3 PV (M)209.70216.73223.93
Year 4 PV (M)179.15187.22195.55
Year 5 PV (M)153.05161.71170.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,737.305,005.285,285.27
Equity Value (M)5,811.896,112.286,425.54
Shares Outstanding (M)1,061.501,061.501,061.50
Fair Value$5.48$5.76$6.05
Upside / Downside-40.81%-37.75%-34.56%

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