Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Zhejiang Dongri Limited Company (600113.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.24 - $15.76$10.37
Multi-Stage$5.40 - $5.89$5.64
Blended Fair Value$8.00
Current Price$54.77
Upside-85.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.38%29.66%0.220.160.270.050.070.060.090.030.040.03
YoY Growth--38.55%-42.03%488.35%-31.48%16.34%-38.72%184.49%-5.98%28.44%69.32%
Dividend Yield--1.58%1.96%3.53%0.53%1.11%0.94%1.10%0.31%0.21%0.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)146.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)61.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)85.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.2818.3010.98
Cash Retained (M)85.3585.3585.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.28-18.30-10.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)56.0767.0574.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)391.95391.95391.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate9.86%9.86%9.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.24$10.37$15.76
Upside / Downside-86.79%-81.07%-71.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)146.40155.92166.05176.85188.34200.59206.60
Payout Ratio41.70%51.36%61.02%70.68%80.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)61.0580.08101.33125.00151.32180.53191.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.86%9.86%9.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)72.2172.9073.58
Year 2 PV (M)82.3983.9685.54
Year 3 PV (M)91.6594.2896.96
Year 4 PV (M)100.04103.89107.85
Year 5 PV (M)107.63112.82118.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,661.541,741.791,825.12
Equity Value (M)2,115.462,209.642,307.27
Shares Outstanding (M)391.95391.95391.95
Fair Value$5.40$5.64$5.89
Upside / Downside-90.15%-89.71%-89.25%

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