Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Chongqing road & bridge co.,ltd (600106.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.68 - $0.90$0.79
Multi-Stage$2.47 - $2.75$2.61
Blended Fair Value$1.70
Current Price$6.31
Upside-73.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.75%4.50%0.100.050.060.050.060.060.070.070.050.06
YoY Growth--109.80%-20.69%11.54%-14.63%10.00%-13.29%-4.59%30.67%-8.54%-9.89%
Dividend Yield--1.86%0.75%1.23%1.14%2.30%2.30%1.99%2.28%0.96%0.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)229.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)89.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)140.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.9628.7317.24
Cash Retained (M)140.67140.67140.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.96-28.73-17.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)94.71111.95123.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,286.011,286.011,286.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.07%6.07%6.07%
Growth Rate-12.42%-11.42%-10.42%
Fair Value$0.68$0.79$0.90
Upside / Downside-89.27%-87.45%-85.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)229.81203.57180.33159.74141.50125.35129.11
Payout Ratio38.79%49.03%59.27%69.51%79.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)89.1499.81106.88111.04112.86112.81119.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.07%6.07%6.07%
Growth Rate-12.42%-11.42%-10.42%
Year 1 PV (M)93.0394.1095.16
Year 2 PV (M)92.8695.0097.15
Year 3 PV (M)89.9393.0496.23
Year 4 PV (M)85.1989.1593.25
Year 5 PV (M)79.3884.0188.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,735.102,894.853,061.98
Equity Value (M)3,175.503,350.153,532.63
Shares Outstanding (M)1,286.011,286.011,286.01
Fair Value$2.47$2.61$2.75
Upside / Downside-60.87%-58.72%-56.47%

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