Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jiangsu Etern Company Limited (600105.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.66 - $7.14$5.04
Multi-Stage$4.81 - $5.27$5.03
Blended Fair Value$5.04
Current Price$12.71
Upside-60.38%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.06%4.85%0.100.070.060.100.080.170.090.080.020.04
YoY Growth--36.47%14.96%-38.59%21.07%-52.28%101.29%11.12%298.43%-54.64%-28.63%
Dividend Yield--1.45%1.39%1.34%2.45%2.64%3.75%1.52%1.77%0.25%0.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)333.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)133.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)199.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)66.6441.6524.99
Cash Retained (M)199.74199.74199.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-66.64-41.65-24.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)133.10158.09174.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,471.171,471.171,471.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate7.10%7.10%7.10%
Growth Rate2.05%3.05%4.05%
Fair Value$3.66$5.04$7.14
Upside / Downside-71.22%-60.38%-43.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)333.21343.37353.84364.63375.75387.21398.83
Payout Ratio40.05%50.04%60.03%70.02%80.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)133.46171.83212.42255.32300.64348.49368.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.10%7.10%7.10%
Growth Rate2.05%3.05%4.05%
Year 1 PV (M)158.88160.44161.99
Year 2 PV (M)181.60185.17188.78
Year 3 PV (M)201.82207.81213.92
Year 4 PV (M)219.72228.46237.46
Year 5 PV (M)235.49247.26259.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,073.136,376.586,692.04
Equity Value (M)7,070.637,405.717,753.68
Shares Outstanding (M)1,471.171,471.171,471.17
Fair Value$4.81$5.03$5.27
Upside / Downside-62.19%-60.39%-58.53%

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