Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Resources Double-Crane Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd. (600062.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$124.64 - $303.33$284.26
Multi-Stage$43.95 - $48.12$45.99
Blended Fair Value$165.13
Current Price$18.68
Upside783.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS37.67%8.21%1.430.300.770.290.310.290.090.190.180.00
YoY Growth--383.60%-61.85%164.97%-5.24%6.74%228.34%-52.97%4.89%5,403.38%-99.50%
Dividend Yield--7.55%1.43%4.49%1.72%2.63%2.28%0.62%0.94%1.09%0.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,580.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)420.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,159.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)316.04197.52118.51
Cash Retained (M)1,159.711,159.711,159.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-316.04-197.52-118.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)843.67962.181,041.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,036.041,036.041,036.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.810.931.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.810.931.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.221.331.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$124.64$284.26$303.33
Upside / Downside567.23%1,421.75%1,523.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,580.191,682.901,792.291,908.792,032.862,164.992,229.94
Payout Ratio26.61%39.29%51.97%64.64%77.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)420.48661.17931.371,233.911,571.841,948.492,062.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)614.80620.63626.45
Year 2 PV (M)805.31820.65836.13
Year 3 PV (M)992.071,020.551,049.57
Year 4 PV (M)1,175.131,220.331,266.81
Year 5 PV (M)1,354.551,419.981,487.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,589.4242,549.9144,585.43
Equity Value (M)45,531.2947,652.0449,852.30
Shares Outstanding (M)1,036.041,036.041,036.04
Fair Value$43.95$45.99$48.12
Upside / Downside135.26%146.22%157.59%

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