Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Old Chang Kee Ltd. (5ML.SI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.31 - $2.37$1.75
Multi-Stage$2.05 - $2.25$2.15
Blended Fair Value$1.95
Current Price$0.85
Upside129.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-4.36%-3.97%0.020.020.020.020.010.020.030.030.030.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%100.00%-59.99%-16.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.35%2.76%2.99%3.01%1.37%3.45%3.80%3.87%3.61%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.271.420.85
Cash Retained (M)8.928.928.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.27-1.42-0.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.657.508.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)121.37121.37121.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.080.09
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate0.98%1.98%2.98%
Fair Value$1.31$1.75$2.37
Upside / Downside54.20%106.10%178.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11.3511.5711.8012.0312.2712.5212.89
Payout Ratio21.40%35.12%48.84%62.56%76.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.434.065.767.539.3611.2611.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate0.98%1.98%2.98%
Year 1 PV (M)3.773.813.84
Year 2 PV (M)4.965.065.16
Year 3 PV (M)6.016.196.37
Year 4 PV (M)6.937.217.50
Year 5 PV (M)7.748.138.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)219.04230.10241.61
Equity Value (M)248.45260.50273.02
Shares Outstanding (M)121.37121.37121.37
Fair Value$2.05$2.15$2.25
Upside / Downside140.82%152.50%164.64%

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