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Definitive Analysis

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Taiwan Cooperative Financial Holding Co., Ltd. (5880.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$68.82 - $248.85$218.15
Multi-Stage$32.02 - $35.00$33.48
Blended Fair Value$125.82
Current Price$24.65
Upside410.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.28%8.30%0.610.450.870.720.700.600.580.570.210.34
YoY Growth--36.50%-48.50%20.00%3.00%16.73%3.00%3.00%167.50%-37.00%22.41%
Dividend Yield--2.62%1.81%3.73%2.82%3.91%3.97%3.75%4.24%1.86%3.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19,589.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10,656.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,932.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,917.922,448.701,469.22
Cash Retained (M)8,932.638,932.638,932.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,917.92-2,448.70-1,469.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,014.726,483.947,463.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15,655.5715,655.5715,655.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.410.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.680.680.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.410.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.001.091.16
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$68.82$218.15$248.85
Upside / Downside179.20%785.00%909.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19,589.5820,862.9022,218.9923,663.2325,201.3426,839.4227,644.60
Payout Ratio54.40%61.52%68.64%75.76%82.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10,656.9512,835.0415,251.2617,927.3620,886.9224,155.4825,571.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)11,878.9011,991.5012,104.09
Year 2 PV (M)13,063.6313,312.4513,563.63
Year 3 PV (M)14,211.9514,619.9215,035.63
Year 4 PV (M)15,324.6515,913.9916,520.17
Year 5 PV (M)16,402.5317,194.7818,017.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)430,384.45451,172.18472,755.50
Equity Value (M)501,266.10524,204.82547,996.37
Shares Outstanding (M)15,655.5715,655.5715,655.57
Fair Value$32.02$33.48$35.00
Upside / Downside29.89%35.84%42.00%

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