Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Aichi Steel Corporation (5482.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,672.65 - $6,083.38$4,739.59
Multi-Stage$6,069.27 - $6,668.05$6,362.91
Blended Fair Value$5,551.25
Current Price$2,137.00
Upside159.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS1.68%2.68%79.4836.6612.2739.6942.7973.1379.2960.9861.0461.01
YoY Growth--116.82%198.74%-69.09%-7.24%-41.48%-7.78%30.03%-0.10%0.05%0.05%
Dividend Yield--3.72%4.12%1.61%7.62%5.61%9.56%9.71%5.72%5.51%5.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,267.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,108.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,159.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,053.401,283.38770.03
Cash Retained (M)7,159.007,159.007,159.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,053.40-1,283.38-770.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,105.605,875.636,388.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)32.2732.2732.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share158.20182.06197.97
LTM Dividend per Share96.3196.3196.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share158.20182.06197.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend254.51278.37294.28
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate0.20%1.20%2.20%
Fair Value$3,672.65$4,739.59$6,083.38
Upside / Downside71.86%121.79%184.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,267.0010,390.6810,515.8610,642.5410,770.7510,900.5011,227.51
Payout Ratio30.27%42.22%54.16%66.11%78.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,108.004,386.685,695.717,035.648,407.049,810.4510,385.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate0.20%1.20%2.20%
Year 1 PV (M)4,053.554,094.014,134.46
Year 2 PV (M)4,863.504,961.055,059.58
Year 3 PV (M)5,551.445,719.305,890.52
Year 4 PV (M)6,129.786,378.166,634.01
Year 5 PV (M)6,609.856,946.317,296.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)168,661.59177,247.10186,178.74
Equity Value (M)195,869.71205,345.94215,193.65
Shares Outstanding (M)32.2732.2732.27
Fair Value$6,069.27$6,362.91$6,668.05
Upside / Downside184.01%197.75%212.03%

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