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Definitive Analysis

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Sumitomo Riko Company Limited (5191.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22,807.03 - $55,764.00$52,259.03
Multi-Stage$8,050.84 - $8,815.80$8,426.28
Blended Fair Value$30,342.66
Current Price$2,206.00
Upside1,275.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS36.44%11.19%52.0016.0014.0014.007.0011.0020.0020.0018.0018.00
YoY Growth--225.05%14.24%0.00%100.00%-36.34%-45.02%0.00%11.13%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.12%1.09%1.64%2.38%0.97%1.76%2.35%1.76%1.56%2.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)29,112.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,853.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)22,259.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,822.403,639.002,183.40
Cash Retained (M)22,259.0022,259.0022,259.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,822.40-3,639.00-2,183.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)16,436.6018,620.0020,075.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)103.82103.82103.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share158.31179.34193.36
LTM Dividend per Share66.0166.0166.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share158.31179.34193.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend224.32245.35259.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22,807.03$52,259.03$55,764.00
Upside / Downside933.86%2,268.95%2,427.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)29,112.0031,004.2833,019.5635,165.8337,451.6139,885.9641,082.54
Payout Ratio23.54%36.83%50.12%63.42%76.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,853.0011,419.5316,550.7522,300.7828,728.3935,897.3738,001.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10,618.1310,718.7710,819.42
Year 2 PV (M)14,309.2614,581.8114,856.93
Year 3 PV (M)17,927.4818,442.1218,966.51
Year 4 PV (M)21,473.8722,299.7023,149.11
Year 5 PV (M)24,949.4826,154.5527,405.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)746,593.29782,654.02820,094.89
Equity Value (M)835,871.51874,850.97915,292.60
Shares Outstanding (M)103.82103.82103.82
Fair Value$8,050.84$8,426.28$8,815.80
Upside / Downside264.95%281.97%299.63%

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