Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Axis Real Estate Investment Trust (5106.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.75 - $23.95$22.44
Multi-Stage$3.55 - $3.89$3.72
Blended Fair Value$13.08
Current Price$2.05
Upside538.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.72%6.83%0.090.070.080.070.060.070.040.050.050.04
YoY Growth--23.38%-6.29%16.55%23.12%-16.56%47.75%-14.84%16.11%15.11%-16.87%
Dividend Yield--5.07%4.09%4.22%3.66%2.84%3.62%2.51%4.08%2.75%2.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)239.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)136.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)102.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)47.8429.9017.94
Cash Retained (M)102.88102.88102.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-47.84-29.90-17.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)55.0372.9784.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,980.311,980.311,980.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate5.17%6.17%7.17%
Fair Value$7.75$22.44$23.95
Upside / Downside278.17%994.83%1,068.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)239.22253.98269.65286.29303.95322.70332.38
Payout Ratio56.99%63.60%70.20%76.80%83.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)136.34161.52189.28219.86253.49290.43307.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate5.17%6.17%7.17%
Year 1 PV (M)150.26151.69153.12
Year 2 PV (M)163.81166.94170.10
Year 3 PV (M)177.01182.11187.30
Year 4 PV (M)189.86197.18204.72
Year 5 PV (M)202.36212.17222.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,153.946,452.136,761.77
Equity Value (M)7,037.257,362.237,699.36
Shares Outstanding (M)1,980.311,980.311,980.31
Fair Value$3.55$3.72$3.89
Upside / Downside73.35%81.35%89.66%

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