Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nippon RAD Inc. (4736.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$610.59 - $915.56$755.13
Multi-Stage$1,164.26 - $1,282.33$1,222.13
Blended Fair Value$988.63
Current Price$767.00
Upside28.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020
DPS-0.90%0.00%4.759.804.984.974.824.970.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---51.53%96.58%0.30%3.07%-2.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.62%1.22%0.73%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)386.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)333.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)77.2348.2728.96
Cash Retained (M)333.81333.81333.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-77.23-48.27-28.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)256.58285.54304.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.285.285.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share48.5554.0357.69
LTM Dividend per Share9.919.919.91
(+) Excess Retained per Share48.5554.0357.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend58.4663.9467.59
WACC / Discount Rate7.38%7.38%7.38%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$610.59$755.13$915.56
Upside / Downside-20.39%-1.55%19.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)386.16382.30378.48374.69370.95367.24378.25
Payout Ratio13.56%28.85%44.13%59.42%74.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52.35110.28167.04222.65277.14330.51349.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.38%7.38%7.38%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)101.66102.69103.73
Year 2 PV (M)141.95144.86147.80
Year 3 PV (M)174.42179.81185.32
Year 4 PV (M)200.13208.43216.98
Year 5 PV (M)220.02231.48243.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,314.265,590.995,879.13
Equity Value (M)6,152.446,458.266,776.36
Shares Outstanding (M)5.285.285.28
Fair Value$1,164.26$1,222.13$1,282.33
Upside / Downside51.79%59.34%67.19%

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