Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Mechema Chemicals International Corp. (4721.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.67 - $28.75$24.06
Multi-Stage$54.96 - $60.65$57.75
Blended Fair Value$40.90
Current Price$68.30
Upside-40.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-17.04%0.37%1.104.603.801.392.442.802.401.551.401.30
YoY Growth---76.09%21.05%173.38%-43.03%-12.86%16.67%54.84%10.71%7.69%22.64%
Dividend Yield--1.87%6.16%3.57%0.92%3.86%7.11%3.16%1.52%3.25%4.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)200.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)82.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)118.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.1125.0715.04
Cash Retained (M)118.04118.04118.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.11-25.07-15.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)77.9492.98103.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)75.0175.0175.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.041.241.37
LTM Dividend per Share1.101.101.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.041.241.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.142.342.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate-4.25%-3.25%-2.25%
Fair Value$19.67$24.06$28.75
Upside / Downside-71.19%-64.78%-57.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)200.53194.01187.70181.59175.69169.98175.07
Payout Ratio41.13%50.91%60.68%70.45%80.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)82.4998.76113.90127.94140.95152.98161.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate-4.25%-3.25%-2.25%
Year 1 PV (M)92.0793.0494.00
Year 2 PV (M)98.99101.07103.17
Year 3 PV (M)103.66106.95110.30
Year 4 PV (M)106.47110.99115.65
Year 5 PV (M)107.73113.47119.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,613.133,805.794,006.59
Equity Value (M)4,122.064,331.314,549.16
Shares Outstanding (M)75.0175.0175.01
Fair Value$54.96$57.75$60.65
Upside / Downside-19.54%-15.45%-11.20%

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