Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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OBIC Co.,Ltd. (4684.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,162.53 - $12,941.52$6,665.84
Multi-Stage$2,792.28 - $3,048.49$2,918.07
Blended Fair Value$4,791.95
Current Price$5,154.00
Upside-7.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS17.22%18.36%66.0054.4346.8739.8834.3729.8325.2719.2118.2014.73
YoY Growth--21.25%16.14%17.53%16.01%15.25%18.01%31.57%5.56%23.55%20.43%
Dividend Yield--1.18%1.32%1.02%1.04%0.83%0.79%1.02%1.05%1.32%1.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)69,865.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30,792.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)39,073.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13,973.008,733.135,239.88
Cash Retained (M)39,073.0039,073.0039,073.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-13,973.00-8,733.13-5,239.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)25,100.0030,339.8833,833.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)439.89439.89439.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share57.0668.9776.91
LTM Dividend per Share70.0070.0070.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share57.0668.9776.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend127.06138.97146.91
WACC / Discount Rate8.72%8.72%8.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4,162.53$6,665.84$12,941.52
Upside / Downside-19.24%29.33%151.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)69,865.0074,406.2379,242.6384,393.4089,878.9795,721.1098,592.74
Payout Ratio44.07%53.26%62.44%71.63%80.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30,792.0039,627.9049,482.3860,450.5172,635.4386,148.9991,198.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.72%8.72%8.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)36,107.1436,449.3936,791.64
Year 2 PV (M)41,080.4041,862.8642,652.71
Year 3 PV (M)45,727.3547,040.0248,377.57
Year 4 PV (M)50,062.9751,988.2653,968.54
Year 5 PV (M)54,101.6356,714.7659,427.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,001,208.581,049,567.331,099,776.88
Equity Value (M)1,228,288.081,283,622.621,340,995.25
Shares Outstanding (M)439.89439.89439.89
Fair Value$2,792.28$2,918.07$3,048.49
Upside / Downside-45.82%-43.38%-40.85%

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