Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chugoku Marine Paints, Ltd. (4617.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19,519.17 - $45,343.61$42,493.60
Multi-Stage$6,733.36 - $7,368.67$7,045.19
Blended Fair Value$24,769.39
Current Price$2,708.00
Upside814.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS15.84%17.33%85.8451.9035.7236.6139.6341.1546.3325.0722.5921.36
YoY Growth--65.41%45.29%-2.42%-7.63%-3.68%-11.19%84.79%10.98%5.76%23.00%
Dividend Yield--3.17%2.59%2.95%4.16%4.62%5.14%4.85%2.27%2.61%3.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11,304.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,795.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,509.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,260.801,413.00847.80
Cash Retained (M)6,509.006,509.006,509.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,260.80-1,413.00-847.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,248.205,096.005,661.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)49.5849.5849.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share85.69102.79114.19
LTM Dividend per Share96.7196.7196.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share85.69102.79114.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend182.40199.50210.90
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19,519.17$42,493.60$45,343.61
Upside / Downside620.80%1,469.19%1,574.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11,304.0012,038.7612,821.2813,654.6614,542.2215,487.4615,952.08
Payout Ratio42.42%51.93%61.45%70.97%80.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,795.006,252.327,878.839,690.3711,704.1213,938.7114,755.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,816.375,871.505,926.63
Year 2 PV (M)6,818.416,948.287,079.38
Year 3 PV (M)7,801.408,025.368,253.55
Year 4 PV (M)8,765.619,102.719,449.44
Year 5 PV (M)9,711.3010,180.3510,667.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)294,919.27309,163.98323,953.87
Equity Value (M)333,832.36349,292.19365,330.24
Shares Outstanding (M)49.5849.5849.58
Fair Value$6,733.36$7,045.19$7,368.67
Upside / Downside148.65%160.16%172.11%

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