Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chaheng Precision Co., Ltd. (4546.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.94 - $44.25$38.76
Multi-Stage$74.29 - $82.28$78.20
Blended Fair Value$58.48
Current Price$90.90
Upside-35.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-35.25%0.00%0.800.000.000.007.037.030.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.89%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)252.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)225.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50.5331.5818.95
Cash Retained (M)225.64225.64225.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-50.53-31.58-18.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)175.11194.06206.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)33.7933.7933.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.185.746.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.800.800.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.185.746.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.986.546.92
WACC / Discount Rate7.99%7.99%7.99%
Growth Rate-8.61%-7.61%-6.61%
Fair Value$32.94$38.76$44.25
Upside / Downside-63.76%-57.36%-51.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)252.66233.44215.69199.28184.13170.12175.23
Payout Ratio10.69%26.56%42.42%58.28%74.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.0261.9991.49116.14136.51153.11162.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.99%7.99%7.99%
Growth Rate-8.61%-7.61%-6.61%
Year 1 PV (M)56.7857.4058.02
Year 2 PV (M)76.7678.4480.15
Year 3 PV (M)89.2592.2195.24
Year 4 PV (M)96.09100.36104.78
Year 5 PV (M)98.71104.23110.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,092.442,209.452,331.63
Equity Value (M)2,510.032,642.102,779.82
Shares Outstanding (M)33.7933.7933.79
Fair Value$74.29$78.20$82.28
Upside / Downside-18.27%-13.97%-9.49%

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