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Definitive Analysis

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JMDC Inc. (4483.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Healthcare Information ServicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$803.04 - $1,157.24$975.72
Multi-Stage$1,280.83 - $1,408.42$1,343.38
Blended Fair Value$1,159.55
Current Price$4,480.00
Upside-74.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20252024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%13.8411.428.540.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--21.22%33.69%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.35%0.36%0.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,461.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,045.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,416.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,492.20932.63559.58
Cash Retained (M)6,416.006,416.006,416.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,492.20-932.63-559.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,923.805,483.385,856.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)66.0266.0266.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share74.5883.0588.70
LTM Dividend per Share15.8315.8315.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share74.5883.0588.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend90.4198.88104.53
WACC / Discount Rate9.03%9.03%9.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$803.04$975.72$1,157.24
Upside / Downside-82.08%-78.22%-74.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,461.007,386.397,312.537,239.407,167.017,095.347,308.20
Payout Ratio14.01%29.20%44.40%59.60%74.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,045.002,157.193,247.034,314.865,361.016,385.806,760.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.03%9.03%9.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,958.491,978.481,998.46
Year 2 PV (M)2,676.412,731.312,786.77
Year 3 PV (M)3,228.993,328.843,430.74
Year 4 PV (M)3,642.333,793.283,948.89
Year 5 PV (M)3,938.954,144.064,357.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)69,117.3572,716.4576,463.95
Equity Value (M)84,562.5288,692.4392,986.43
Shares Outstanding (M)66.0266.0266.02
Fair Value$1,280.83$1,343.38$1,408.42
Upside / Downside-71.41%-70.01%-68.56%

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