Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SOFT99corporation (4464.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,524.89 - $5,470.50$3,611.97
Multi-Stage$3,477.63 - $3,817.96$3,644.56
Blended Fair Value$3,628.27
Current Price$1,611.00
Upside125.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020
DPS11.92%0.00%42.9039.7536.7637.9625.0324.420.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--7.91%8.15%-3.17%51.66%2.48%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.66%2.58%2.65%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,923.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)933.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,990.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)584.63365.39219.23
Cash Retained (M)1,990.111,990.111,990.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-584.63-365.39-219.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,405.481,624.721,770.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)21.5421.5421.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share65.2675.4482.23
LTM Dividend per Share43.3243.3243.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share65.2675.4482.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend108.59118.77125.55
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate2.01%3.01%4.01%
Fair Value$2,524.89$3,611.97$5,470.50
Upside / Downside56.73%124.21%239.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,923.133,011.143,101.793,195.183,291.373,390.473,492.18
Payout Ratio31.92%43.53%55.15%66.77%78.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)933.031,310.901,710.682,133.342,579.903,051.423,230.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate2.01%3.01%4.01%
Year 1 PV (M)1,220.111,232.071,244.03
Year 2 PV (M)1,481.931,511.131,540.61
Year 3 PV (M)1,720.091,771.181,823.26
Year 4 PV (M)1,936.092,013.132,092.45
Year 5 PV (M)2,131.352,237.892,348.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)66,403.5469,722.7173,173.31
Equity Value (M)74,893.1278,488.1182,222.30
Shares Outstanding (M)21.5421.5421.54
Fair Value$3,477.63$3,644.56$3,817.96
Upside / Downside115.87%126.23%136.99%

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