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Definitive Analysis

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WingArc1st Inc. (4432.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,261.61 - $1,889.60$1,559.48
Multi-Stage$2,532.21 - $2,780.29$2,653.84
Blended Fair Value$2,106.66
Current Price$3,290.00
Upside-35.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172013
DPS0.00%0.00%86.8054.6742.5241.110.000.0040.3982.570.0018.93
YoY Growth--58.77%28.57%3.45%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-51.09%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.29%1.92%1.79%2.94%0.00%0.00%2.04%4.17%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,270.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,610.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,659.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,054.13658.83395.30
Cash Retained (M)1,659.971,659.971,659.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,054.13-658.83-395.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)605.831,001.131,264.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)34.7634.7634.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share17.4328.8036.38
LTM Dividend per Share103.87103.87103.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share17.4328.8036.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend121.30132.67140.25
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1,261.61$1,559.48$1,889.60
Upside / Downside-61.65%-52.60%-42.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,270.675,217.965,165.785,114.135,062.985,012.355,162.73
Payout Ratio68.51%72.80%77.10%81.40%85.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,610.703,798.913,982.994,163.014,339.034,511.124,775.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3,500.713,536.433,572.15
Year 2 PV (M)3,382.233,451.613,521.69
Year 3 PV (M)3,257.613,358.353,461.15
Year 4 PV (M)3,128.823,258.503,392.16
Year 5 PV (M)2,997.573,153.663,316.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)71,758.3075,494.9379,385.61
Equity Value (M)88,025.2592,253.4896,648.96
Shares Outstanding (M)34.7634.7634.76
Fair Value$2,532.21$2,653.84$2,780.29
Upside / Downside-23.03%-19.34%-15.49%

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